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European Online Journal of Natural and Social Sciences

Comparative Analysis of Export Performance of Indian Cocoa during Pre and Post MIDH Periods

M. Sundariya, V. Banumathy, S. Ravichandran


A progress of cocoa cultivation was focused on the objective of estimating the growth rate of export quantity and value of Indian cocoa and identifying the trade direction of Indian cocoa. The study was based on the secondary data for 15 years (2006-07 to 2020-21), separated into period I (Pre-MIDH) and period II (Post-MIDH). Compound growth rate used to estimate the export quantity and value, Markov chain analysis for probability changes of cocoa exports to the major markets. The study found that the share of cocoa exports in agricultural exports in terms of value increased from 5.25% in 2011-12 to 10.83% in 2020–21 for the last decade of the study. The growth rate analysis, export quantity and value increased in the both periods. The transition probability matrix showed that Nepal was the most stable importing market for Indian cocoa in a period I, whereas the USA and Turkey were stable importers in period II. The other markets retained a probability share with a low probability and were considered unstable markets. Hence, the study concluded that a robust export policy is responsible for stabilizing the international market, disseminate export-oriented strategies of cocoa beans to farmers, and raise the level of price competition for Indian cocoa abroad. The government sector is responsible for setting Premium cocoa prices, building large-scale processing plants with high production rates and facilities for farmers producers organisations (FPO) to distribute cocoa beans, and luring international buyers by improving the quality of the beans.


Cocoa, Export, Compound growth rate, Direction of trade, Markov chain analysis

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