The Determinants of Pakistan’s Bilateral Trade and Trade Potential with World: A Gravity Model Approach

Abstract

Nonlinear measurement of gravity model with PPML regression technique has become admired for modeling international trade flows since it approves a better accounting for zero flows and excessive values in distribution tail. In the present study, we have endeavored to investigate the bilateral trade milieu of Pakistan with 198 trading cohorts over the time epoch (1992-2016) 25 years and to stumble on latent markets in case of Pakistan’s bilateral trade. The empirical results revealed that market size, bilateral exchange rates, income differential, common religion, border, and trade agreements positively influence bilateral trade volume while bilateral distance and landlocked countries showed a negative relationship towards bilateral trade of Pakistan with rest of the world. The outcome also illustrates that the trade pattern of Pakistan hinges on the Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) theory, therefore, can be explained by the dissimilarity in factor endowments whereas the WTO membership does not have any influence on bilateral trade of Pakistan. Pakistan owns satisfactory potential to enhance its bilateral trade with nearly 102 countries. The highest potential lies with countries Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Somalia, Hong Kong, Iran and USA whereas actual trade has exceeded with countries like China, Oman, Spain, UAE, Germany, and the UK. Hence, there is need to address all measures to improve bilateral trade with potential countries moreover per se Pakistan can perhaps decrease or handle the trade discrepancy by targeting these economies, to bring about a reasonable quality in mutual trading relations.