Analyzing the Relationship between Crime and Population Intensity (12th Municipality Area of Tehran as a Case Study)

Abstract

Nowadays, development of civilization and increase in the civil and social abnormal behaviors such as crimes and citizens’ safety are the most important criteria of space quality. It has been decreased considerably. As a result, rapid development of crimes is attended as one of the most important complex issues in many big cities such as Tehran in comparison to past 50 years. This is why that emergence of social crimes and abnormalities has been developed in such cities. It seems that along with individual, social, cultural, and economic factors, there are many spatial-physical crimes and abnormalities which pave the ground for possibility of crimes and guilty in this city. The 12th municipality area of Tehran was selected for studying. The present study was aimed to investigate spatial-physical analysis of the relationship between crime and population intensity in the 12th municipality area of Tehran. This study is a descriptive-analytical research in which some statistical spatial methods were used for recognizing spatial models of crime in the city. The methods include clustering and nearest neighbor measure. In addition, some graphic-oriented statistical methods such as Cornel intensity estimation were used for recognizing crimes focuses. The statistical population of this study includes 560 crimes which were done in the 12th municipality area of Tehran during past year. The findings revealed that spatial distribution of crimes in the 12th municipality area of Tehran is followed by cluster and concentrated model so exactly that certain areas of this area is the main focus of crime and vice versa. This means that other areas are healthy. In addition, there is a significant relationship between population intensity of the area and its rate of crime so that increase in the population intensity in the 12th municipality area of Tehran results in more rate of crime.